How should political analysis be done?

Political Analysis - Why And How?  It is commonly accepted that understanding the political events of the world is difficult.  How then does a political judgment come close enough to the truth and how does one do this. Moreover, is political analysis worth all the time and effort.  First and foremost the problem facing Muslims is political in nature.  Thus understanding political events and the actors involved is clearly indispensable for those who want to help Muslims their condition. One has to establish whether a ruler is sincere to Allah or an agent of some foreign power in order to form our attitudes towards that ruler. Consequently those who do not understand political events cannot lead, but in fact need to be lead. Needless to say that understanding political events and those involved becomes more important for those who assume the power of a state and who seek to play a leading role in the world.  Political analysis is based on two things: political information and its linkage.  The difference of opinion between the analysts arises from difference of their political information and the strength of their frameworks and assumptions.  Concerning political information, some is related to the international situation and some to the local event sought to be analysed. The international situation is dependant, at the present time, on the policy of the leading superpower, that is the USA. Consequently, it is important to understand and follow American politics.  This requires knowledge of who rules America, those who are influential in formulating its politics and how it designs its policy. Political information can be obtained from the media bearing in mind the difference between the news and personal opinions of reporters.    Although the international situation does not remain at a standstill, some changes are fundamental and others are not. One such radical change in American politics was the shift from cold war policy to a policy of coexistence with the USSR.  Some people express views on political events without any evidence or proof. They then begin to interpret what happens in such a way as to agree with their pre-existing views. This is not political analysis but merely political conjecture and a prediction from the stars, even if the opinion happens to be correct. It is then better to stop expressing views until a base line is built up.