in category Politics

How is Russia doing in Ukraine in 2022?

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Masters in Education from Nottingham University in the UK. Also studied Masters in Islamic Studies and Islamic Banking & Finance. Political activist with interests in Geopolitics, History and Phil ...
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How is Russia doing in the Ukraine? Not well at all!  Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in April that the West wants Russia to emerge from its war against Ukraine severely weakened, if not debilitated to ensure it will not have the capacity to attempt another such attack.  It is why the Western policy has been arms shipments, intelligence and other indirect support, and major economic sanctions.   Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, who heads up the British armed forces stated in June that the Russian president had used 25% of his country’s army but achieved only “tiny” gains. The MOD estimates over 50,000 Russian troops have been killed since the invasion started, 6% of its active personnel, with those injured or incapacitated three to four times as high - recruitment becoming difficult without forced conscription. It has lost around 1,700 tanks and a significant number of other vehicles and equipment with at least 490 armored fighting vehicles, 953 infantry fighting vehicles, 127 armored personnel carriers, 90 command posts and communication stations, 65 surface-to-air missile systems and a host of other equipment, according to the military blog Oryx, which closely tracks Russian and Ukrainian losses. Such damage will likely impact Russia’s military capabilities for a long while, perhaps achieving one of the West’s key objectives.  In May, Finance Minister Siluanov admitted “money, huge resources are needed for the special operation”. He also confirmed that 8 trillion roubles (USD $120bn) were required for the stimulus budget. Sanctions are starting to bite and will set the Russian economy - which is not able to produce a huge range of goods without foreign technology or parts – back for decades. Overall, unemployment is set to rise while GDP is unlikely to grow. Around four million Russians have left Russia so far, most not returning, the largest such exodus since the Bolshevik revolution, an enormous brain drain.  The most important policies relate to Russia's hydrocarbon sector with efforts to wean Europe off Russian energy supplies, over time having impact on the Russian economy. All this is offset in the short term by booming oil and gas prices giving Russia a massive surplus to pay for the war. That doesn't mean the Russian economy is strong as economists expect it to shrink by around 10% this year.  The West is also suffering pain with the cost of living... Ukraine's main backers, Europe and the US, are facing soaring energy and food prices linked both to the fallout from the war and sanctions souring public opinion and support for leaders.  Analysts, like Gerard DiPippo at the Center for Strategic & International Studies state: "In the long run, Russia's position is dire... In the short-to-medium term Putin might have the ability to fracture the alliance, particularly if prices go higher. But in general, Russia is in a slow bleed mode."

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